Why Smart Leaders Never Make Assumptions (And You Shouldn’t Either)

Why Would You Assume, When You Can Know?

If you can know the truth, why would you assume it?

It’s not a trick question. The answer is uncomfortable but simple:
You were too lazy, too rushed, or too afraid to ask.

Leaders make assumptions because it’s easier than seeking clarity. They take the shortcut.
And most ironically, they assume their assumption is right.

That’s a double assumption, and it leads straight to double failure.

The Real Cost of Assumptions

A client once came to me frustrated. He was a project manager who wanted help “putting out fires faster.”

After a few sessions, it became clear his issue wasn’t fire-fighting efficiency.

His issue was the number of fires.

So I asked him, “Why do you have so many fires in the first place?” He answered without hesitation: “Because the customer thought the contract called for one thing and I thought it called for another.”

“Why did you both think different things?” I asked.

“Because I assumed he knew what the contract said.”

That word again – assumed.

Every time I asked why, another assumption surfaced. He assumed the client read the contract. The client assumed his team wrote the contract clearly. The contract writers assumed the client would raise any confusion.

Assumption after assumption and stacked like dominoes waiting to fall.

How Assumptions Destroy Trust and Profit

When we finally mapped it out, we saw the real damage:

• Missed deadlines.
  
• Cost overruns.
  
• Frustrated customers.
  
• Damaged credibility.
  

And when I asked, “Who pays for the confusion?” He sighed: “We do.”

That was the truth.

They weren’t losing to the competition – they were losing to their own assumptions.

The fix wasn’t complicated, but it wasn’t painless either. They audited every contract, identified every assumption, and went back to clients to clarify. They owned their mistakes, and yes, they ate the cost.

But something powerful happened. Customers respected them more. In several cases, those same clients expanded their projects.

Clarity became currency and assumption was the tax they stopped paying.

The Result of Removing Assumptions

Now, every contract goes through a meticulous review:

• All assumptions are identified.
• Every necessary assumption is explicitly confirmed with the client before signing.

The results?

• Fewer change orders.
• Early or on-time delivery.
• Happier clients.
• No more constant fires.

Assumptions were costing them time, money, and trust. Clarity gave all three back.

Leadership Starts at Home

This isn’t just a business problem, it’s a human one.

• “I assumed you were picking up the kids.”
• “I assumed you knew what I meant.”
• “I assumed you were walking the dog.”
• “I assumed you were cleaning up the mess.”

Sound familiar?

Assumptions don’t just derail projects – they derail relationships.
In work, in marriage, in parenting – every time you assume, you roll the dice with communication.

The Ice Cold Leader Takeaway

Ask the question, eliminate the assumption, and the your problem is eliminated.

Full stop. Because the truth is this:

Every assumption you make is a leadership decision; you’re choosing comfort over clarity, speed over accuracy, and ego over accountability.

Leaders don’t assume – they confirm. That’s how they prevent fires before they start.

Key Leadership Lesson

If you can ask, don’t assume. If you can verify, don’t guess. The easiest way to fail as a leader is to assume you won’t.

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Errol Doebler is a combat-proven Navy SEAL Officer turned FBI Special Agent, now an executive coach, author, and entrepreneur committed to redefining how leaders lead. His career began in one of the most unforgiving proving grounds in the world: Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) training, where less than 20% make it through. Errol went on to serve as a Platoon Commander at SEAL Team ONE and SEAL Team FOUR, where accountability and disciplined processes weren’t abstract concepts—they were life or death.

When his SEAL career ended abruptly due to injuries, Errol refused to let adversity define him. He pivoted into the FBI, where for more than a decade he served as a Special Agent and SWAT Operator. He led counterterrorism operations around the world, worked Violent Crimes, and ran high-stakes missions where chaos and consequence collided. His time in the FBI wasn’t without its challenges—he witnessed firsthand the cracks in leadership culture and chose to walk away rather than compromise his principles.

That decision became the seed for his next chapter. In 2016, Errol founded Ice Cold Leader, a leadership consultancy built on the belief that leadership isn’t charisma, talent, or gut instinct—it’s a repeatable process that anyone can learn. His methodology blends the uncompromising discipline of the SEALs, the investigative rigor of the FBI, and the emotional awareness leaders need in today’s world. His book, Ice Cold Leader: Leading from the Inside Out, is now trusted by executives worldwide as a framework for instilling accountability, building culture, and driving measurable performance.

Through Ice Cold Leader, Errol has coached CEOs, founders, and executive teams across industries—from tech startups to mining operations to billion-dollar enterprises. His clients consistently report transformative ROI: measurable revenue growth, stronger margins, lower turnover, and cultures where accountability thrives. At the heart of his work is a simple truth: leaders who shy away from accountability fail to unlock the excellence of their teams.

Beyond the boardroom, Errol is a husband, father, and storyteller who believes leadership starts at home. His personal journey—including struggles with trauma, recovery, and resilience—shapes the candor and authenticity he brings to every stage, every coaching call, and every keynote.

This blog is an extension of that mission: practical, hard-won lessons on leadership, accountability, and excellence—delivered without fluff, but with the conviction that true leaders do what’s uncomfortable, because that’s what excellence requires.